WEEKLY VIBE
Markets spent most of the week side-eyeing AI capex (capital spending on long-term assets) budgets…then ripped higher Friday anyway. A brief U.S. government shutdown delayed key data (including the January jobs report), leaving traders to obsess even more over Big Tech spending plans and ROI (return on investment). By Friday’s close, the Dow had notched its first 50,000+ finish, but the Nasdaq still logged a down week.
The Magnificent Seven
📦 AMZN (Amazon) | 📉 -13.43% WoW
Earnings landed with a thud, and the market zeroed in on the spending bill.
Amazon reported Q4 results, but investors focused on management’s aggressive 2026 investment posture—especially AI infrastructure.
Impact: If “AI everywhere” is the strategy, Wall Street now wants a timeline for payback—not just bigger numbers.
🕶 META (Meta) | 📉 -6.36% Wow
Headline risk showed up in court, right as AI spending nerves stayed high.
Meta headed to trial in New Mexico over child-exploitation claims—an overhang that can amplify volatility when sentiment is already fragile.
Impact: Regulatory/legal pressure doesn’t pause just because the AI cycle is booming.
📸 Snapshots
📊 MAG7 ETF SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 2/2 → 2/6
ETF (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Roundhill Magnificent Seven (MAGS) | 📉 -4.60% |
📊 MAG7 SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 2/2 → 2/6
Company (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Alphabet (GOOGL) | 📉 -6.08% |
Amazon (AMZN) | 📉 -13.43% |
Apple (AAPL) | 📈 +3.0% |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 📉 -5.25% |
Meta (META) | 📉 -6.36% |
Nvidia (NVDA) | 📉 -0.11% |
Tesla (TSLA) | 📉 -2.54% |
📊 INDEX SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 2/2 → 2/6
Company (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Dow (^DJI) | 📈 +1.43% |
NASDAQ (^IXIC) | 📉 -2.38% |
S&P (^GSPC) | 📉 -0.63% |
🔍 GOOGL (Alphabet/Google) | 📉 -6.08% WoW
Strong results weren’t enough to calm the “how much will this cost?” crowd.
Alphabet reported Q4 and guided to elevated 2026 capex—management put the band at $175B–$185B 2026 capex.
Impact: Cloud + AI can grow fast, but the market is repricing “growth at any cost.”
💻 MSFT (Microsoft) | 📉 -5.25% WoW
Azure reliability took a hit at the worst possible time (when everyone’s moving more workloads to the cloud).
Microsoft posted a detailed post-incident review for an Azure platform issue that impacted core services (including VM operations) and a separate managed identity (a passwordless credential for Azure services) disruption in East/West US.
Impact: The more “AI infra”structure becomes mission-critical, the more outages become valuation events.
⚡ TSLA (Tesla) | 📉 -2.54% WoW
Tesla pushed autonomy efforts forward in China—right where data rules are strictest.
Chinese media reported Tesla is operating an AI training center in China focused on assisted driving/local application—an important step given restrictions around cross-border data movement.
Impact: Local training capacity can be the difference between “present” and “competitive” in China autonomy.
💾 NVDA (Nvidia) | 📉 -0.11% WoW
Nvidia ended basically flat—but it was the emotional support stock on Friday’s bounce.
Big tech’s capex commitments (and Friday’s surge) kept the “picks-and-shovels” trade alive even as hyperscalers sold off earlier in the week.
Impact: If hyperscalers keep spending, suppliers still get paid—just not always in the same week.
🍎 AAPL (Apple) | 📈 +3.0% WoW
Apple caught a regulatory break in Europe—and the stock acted like it.
The European Commission said Apple Ads and Apple Maps should not be designated under the DMA’s “gatekeeper” framework (gatekeeper = a platform service deemed large enough to face extra obligations). Apple also posted new developer requirements for upcoming SDK minimums in App Store submissions
Impact: Fewer platform obligations = fewer surprise constraints on services monetization in the EU
🔗 Mag7-Linked Stocks
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Reported Q4/full-year results, keeping the “AI compute stack” spotlight on GPUs/accelerators + server CPUs.
Impact: Every hyperscaler capex update is also an AMD TAM (total addressable market) update.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Reported Q2 FY26 results with $12.7B net sales and issued FY26 outlook language that kept AI server demand front-and-center.
Impact: The market is now grading “AI strategy” on quarterly scoreboards, not vision decks.
🌊 Ripple Effect (market wrap)
Dow up on the week while Nasdaq fell—classic rotation vibes.
The shutdown-induced data delay pushed macro certainty lower (and “narrative trading” higher).
Friday’s surge was powered by tech/semis + risk assets rebounding (bitcoin popped back above $70K).
Rates and commodities stayed in view: the 10-year yield hovered around the low 4s, WTI crude in the low $60s.
🔮 What’s Next
January jobs report rescheduled for Feb 11 after the shutdown.
Next catalyst isn’t “who’s spending on AI” — it’s “who’s proving AI ROI.”
Watch for more “AI winners vs AI bill-payers” divergence inside mega-cap tech.
Europe remains active on platform rules—DMA headlines can swing sentiment fast.
🧩Closing Insights
This week was the market’s reminder that AI spend is not the same thing as AI profit. The capex era isn’t over—Wall Street just started asking for receipts.
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