WEEKLY VIBE
Big Tech earnings season hit its first real stress test: investors loved AI results and punished AI bills. Federal Reserve held rates steady, but two dissents (members who voted differently) added a little extra spice to the rate tape.
By Friday, a late-week headline—Donald Trump nominating Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell—pushed “Fed path” back onto the front page.
The Magnificent Seven
💻 MSFT (Microsoft) | 📉 -8.6% WoW
The market basically said, “Nice quarter… but how much is this AI tab again?”
Microsoft posted Revenue was $81.3B (+17%) and highlighted strong cloud performance, including Azure +39% (and other cloud services).
Impact: When the stock drops ~10% in a day, it’s a sign investors are laser-focused on AI spending discipline and near-term cloud momentum.
🕶 META (Meta) | 📈 +9.0% Wow
Meta proved you can spend like an AI arms dealer… if the ad engine keeps printing.
Meta reported Q4 results and guided 2026 capex (capital spending on long-term assets) of $115–$135B, while still signaling confidence in operating income performance.
Impact: Meta’s rally suggested investors will tolerate massive AI buildouts when there’s clear ROI (return on investment) showing up in the core business.
📸 Snapshots
📊 MAG7 ETF SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 1/26 → 1/30
ETF (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Roundhill Magnificent Seven (MAGS) | 📈 +0.4% |
📊 MAG7 SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 1/26 → 1/30
Company (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Alphabet (GOOGL) | 📈 +1.4% |
Amazon (AMZN) | 📈 +0.4% |
Apple (AAPL) | 📈 +1.6% |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 📉 -8.6% |
Meta (META) | 📈 +6.6% |
Nvidia (NVDA) | 📈 +2.5% |
Tesla (TSLA) | 📉 -1.1% |
📊 INDEX SNAPSHOT - WEEK of 1/26 → 1/30
Company (Ticker) | % Change |
|---|---|
Dow (^DJI) | 📉 -0.2% |
NASDAQ (^IXIC) | 📉 -0.6% |
S&P (^GSPC) | 📉 -1.1% |
🍎 APPL (Apple) | 📈 +1.6% WoW
Apple dropped a record quarter… and still made it look routine.
Apple reported fiscal Q1 results with quarterly revenue of $143.8B and EPS of $2.84, plus commentary on record iPhone and Services performance.
Apple also introduced a new AirTag with longer range + louder speaker—classic ecosystem flywheel stuff.
Impact: In a week obsessed with AI capex, Apple’s “cash + demand” narrative was a reminder that fundamentals still matter.
⚡ TSLA (Tesla) | 📉 -1.1% WoW
Tesla’s quarter read like two companies: cars under pressure, “physical AI” getting louder.
In its Q4 update deck, Tesla reported Q4 revenue of $24.901B with GAAP net income of $0.84B, and flagged operational momentum like beginning to remove safety monitors from robotaxis in Austin (select cases).
Impact: TSLA traded like investors are still waiting for autonomy to show up as scalable revenue—not just a compelling story.
💾 NVDA (Nvidia) | 📈 +2.5% WoW
Nvidia didn’t report this week—but hyperscaler spend basically kept shouting its name.
Nvidia announced it will host a conference call on Feb 25 for Q4/FY2026 results (fiscal year ended Jan 25).
Impact: With Meta guiding huge 2026 infrastructure spend, Nvidia’s upcoming numbers are the next big “AI demand reality check.”
🔍 GOOGL (Alphabet/Google) | 📈 +1.4% WoW
Google’s week was quieter… but not lawsuit-free.
Alphabet/Google reportedly agreed to a $135M settlement tied to Android data transfer (per coverage of the case).
Impact: Even “small” legal settlements add up—especially as AI features expand the surface area for privacy scrutiny.
📦 AMZN (Amazon) | 📈 +0.4% WoW
Amazon’s week felt like quiet execution—and ongoing org trimming.
Amazon shared an internal update acknowledging continued workforce reductions and organizational changes as it reshapes teams.
Impact: Cost discipline + AWS expectations = investors want margin progress without slowing growth.
🔗 Mag7-Linked Stocks
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): Coverage this week pointed to AI chips consuming more leading-edge capacity—supportive for TSMC demand, and potentially a constraint for device ramps across the ecosystem.
Impact: If AI keeps winning the wafer war, hardware timelines elsewhere can get choppy.
OpenAI (private): Microsoft’s selloff spotlighted investor impatience for near-term AI monetization, with OpenAI economics and capacity allocation implicitly in the frame.
Impact: The market is now grading “AI strategy” on quarterly scoreboards, not vision decks.
🌊 Ripple Effect (market wrap)
The Fed held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with two dissents favoring a 25 bp cut (bp = 0.01%).
Indexes drifted lower on the week, with the Dow the laggard—classic “risk-off-lite” when mega-cap leadership wobbles.
AI trade split into two buckets: “spend with receipts” (Meta) vs. “spend with questions” (Microsoft).
Friday’s Warsh nomination added uncertainty around the medium-term policy path (and reminded everyone the Fed storyline can change fast).
🔮 What’s Next
Feb 4: Alphabet earnings (watch Cloud + AI commentary).
Feb 5: Amazon earnings call (AWS demand + margins).
Feb 6: U.S. Employment Situation report (jobs).
Feb 11: CPI for January (inflation).
Feb 25: Nvidia results call (the next AI demand pulse).
🧩Closing Insights
This week’s message was simple: AI is still the market’s favorite story—just not at any price. The winners made the spend look inevitable and profitable.
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